In the third part of this 3-part ACM Awards preview series, we take an in-depth look at the five major artist categories in which the Academy of Country Music will be handing out awards.
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We shared with y’all the first two parts of our Academy of Country Music Preview last week and now we’re going to wrap up the previews with this third part. Part I included the preview for single, song, and album of the year categories and Part II includes our look at Video of the Year, New Artist of the Year and Vocal Event of the Year. We had intended to talk about the Songwriter of the Year category (new this year) but it was already awarded last week.
Click here to see Part I of the 2012 ACM Awards Preview series!
Click here to see Part II of the 2012 ACM Awards Preview series!
Female Vocalist of the Year
Sara Evans
Miranda Lambert
Martina McBride
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Each woman on this list has scored at least one Top 10 hit the past year. Evans and McBride are undoubtedly the ‘veterans’ of the category and while neither of ‘em have a legitimate shot against the blonde twentysomethings they’re up against, both are talented and worthy of being included in this category (and rank amongst the best vocalist of any genre or gender). That being said, this is a three horse race and quite honestly, 2011 was a very quiet year for Underwood so the category is really between Miranda and Taylor and it’s really a toss-up as to who takes home the award. In the end, if we’re forced to choose - and we are for this exercise - we’ll go with the reigning two-time winner Lambert, an artist who has a strong past record of ACM Awards success (and is part of the “country power couple” with Blake Shelton.
Male Vocalist of the Year
Jason Aldean
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Chris Young
Each artist here had two to three #1 hit singles over the course of 2011 and all scored Gold and/or Platinum album sales the past year with their various recordings. This means they’re all viable contenders but with Chesney and Paisley both previous winners, and with Brad having taken home the award for five years, it certainly feels like 2012 will see some new blood take this award home. With that in mind, I think the multiple ACM Entertainer of the year and 2003 ACM Top Male Vocalist and Paisley both are going to have to give a curtsy and allow for Aldean, Shelton or Young to take the trophy. Despite his strong country voice, string of 5 #1 singles (something Garth Brooks, Alan Jackson and other icons have never done) and Gold selling material, Young still seems like he’s behind Shelton and Aldean here so I’ll eliminate him from the running. This leaves ACM Awards co-host (with Reba McEntire) Shelton and Aldean. Blake has won the Male Vocalist of the Year award the past two years from the CMA but has yet to take home the award here and 2011 certainly topped 2010 as the best year of his career (especially when you add in The Voice). Aldean scored the best year of his career and is undoubtedly the biggest story of this award cycle as the only ‘independent’ artist nominated for multiple awards while also consistently selling out arenas and bringing in new fans to country music. Still, I think that he’s more of a contender in the Entertainer of the Year category than the vocalist of the year category (similar to Chesney) and that means I think this award, by process of elimination, will go to the co-host Blake Shelton.
Vocal Duo of the Year
Love and Theft
Montgomery Gentry
Steel Magnolia
Sugarland
Thompson Square
Hmm, As great as Love and Theft are, they really seem like filler for this award category at this point (they’re just at radio now with a new single). Look for them to remain a contender here for a while to come though as they build their career like Sugarland did after downsizing from a trio to a duo and thriving. Steel Magnolia has basically put their duo on hiatus due to many issues so they join LnT as ‘filler.’ That leaves Montgomery Gentry, Thompson Square and the category’s current champions (and three time category winners). Montgomery Gentry hasn’t ever won this category from the ACM and just are back with a Top 10 hit after about 18 months in the wilderness (though they were able to tour and radio played quite a few recurrent MG hits). So that likely means they, too aren’t going to be a real contender here. What that means is that upstart duo Thompson Square (and the holders of a platinum #1 single and Top 5 follow-up single) and the reigning champs Sugarland to ‘duke it out’ for the award. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Thompson Square take the award - and they probably should be able to take it - but I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Sugarland take it home. With that in mind, I think Sugarland keeps the category in ‘status quo’ realm and takes home the award for the fourth year in a row, but I really, really want Thompson Square to take it home.
Group of the Year
The Band Perry
Eli Young Band
Lady Antebellum
Rascal Flatts
Zac Brown Band
Now here’s where the growth of country music has been outside of the male vocalist category. It’s the antithesis of the Vocal Duo of the Year category too as here, each artist scored multiple hits and sold plenty of singles and/or albums. Rascal Flatts took home this award for five years before Lady Antebellum took the category the past two years while holding off a serious challenge from Zac Brown Band. What’s interesting is that the threat is even stronger this year and I like all of the artists here. The Band Perry has national crossover successes like Lady Antebellum but in the end, they and Eli Young Band (who had the most played single of 2011 with “Crazy Girl”) are just going to have to bide their time another year or two to let Zac Brown Band fight with Lady Antebellum to take home this crown. I really do like Lady Antebellum quite a bit but I am hoping beyond hope that Zac Brown Band’s 2011 - successfully selling-out stadiums with Kenny Chesney along with sell-out arena tour dates of their own - is enough to go with the remarkable string of #1 and #2 hits (Each single has hit either mark so far) and platinum sales is enough to get the band this award. Still, I can also see how Lady Antebellum could take home the award too. It’s a toss-up. Heart says go with ZBB, the head says go with Lady Antebellum. I’m gonna follow my heart and say the voters finally give the award to Zac and company.
Entertainer of the Year
Jason Aldean
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Blake Shelton
Taylor Swift
Ahh, the entertainer of the year category. Four guys (all in the Male Vocalist of the Year category) and Taylor Swift duke it out to see who will get enough fans to join in with the Industry to vote for their favorite country superstar. This has meant that the past few years the most ‘popular’ fan favorite in the category (Swift in 2011, Underwood 2009 and 2010) has taken home an award most associate only with ‘touring’ or ‘live shows.’ In all honesty, though, this category is to go to the artist who best represented the country music world in 2010 and In my honest opinion, that means that Chesney and Paisley (who have both won awards like this before) are not the ones to win here. That leaves true celebrities Shelton - thanks to The Voice - and Swift - thanks to her crossover radio and movie success - to battle the upstart headliner and perhaps greatest embassador for new ‘rock fan’ converts to country music, Jason Aldean. All three have compelling cases but you cannot discount the fan voting part and what artist has the most active fanbase on the internet in this category and that’s easily Miss Taylor Swift. So, despite Blake’s massive success on The Voice and his own touring and album and single success, Aldean’s touring, album and single success and rise to superstardom, this is Taylor Swift’s award to lose and she’s unlikely to lose it as long as she’s nominated (or against Carrie Underwood’s equally strong fanbase).
Well, there you have it folks, part III of our 2012 ACM Awards Predictions. We hope you have enjoyed this series of predictions and that you’ll join us on our twitter (@roughtock) feed - which will also be updated in realtime on our site - on Sunday, April 1 as we watch the ACM Awards happen in realtime. We hope you’ll use the #ACMRoughstock hashtag while following the awards as well!
We look forward to seeing y’all there and encourage you to leave comments about your predictions for these categories listed here. Do you agree or disagree with us?
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