It’s once again time to predict who we think will win the ACM Awards this year. Lady Antebellum, who have gone from upstarts to superstars with their chart-topping album Need You Now, currently 2010’s best-selling album, lead this year’s nominations list with seven. Carrie Underwood, Miranda Lambert and Zac Brown are next with six each, with Brown receiving separate nominations than his band thanks to his producer and song-writing credits. How will the awards shake out? Well, that’s what this article is all about. We’re slipping on our oracle glasses once again to try and accurately predict who will win and who we would want to win in a perfect world.
Entertainer of the Year
Kenny Chesney
Toby Keith
Brad Paisley
George Strait
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Keith Urban
Zac Brown Band
It worked for Oscar so the theory is that it will work for the Academy of Country Music now that the Entertainer of the Year category has been expanded from the standard five nominees to eight. It has allowed for there to be two females to be nominated at the same time which is a rarity in this male-dominated genre. As for the category, it’s a total crapshoot as it is mostly a fan-voted award which means fans will do whatever they can to make their favorites win this award. The truth is all of the artists nominated here are great entertainers in their own right with strong performances and my personal favorites on the list include Urban, Chesney and the Zac Brown Band but in the end I really think this award will go to Taylor or Carrie due to strong, motivated fan bases.
Who Will Win: Taylor Swift
Who Should Win: Zac Brown Band
Top Male Vocalist of the Year
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Darius Rucker
George Strait
Keith Urban
Darius Rucker picks up the fifth member of this category this year and it will be interesting to see if the ACM gives him the award, particularly after the year he’s had with a string of consecutive #1 hits. He’s actually the only guy in this category who doesn’t already own this trophy with Brad having won the last three years in a row, Keith the two years before that and Kenny’s 2002 win with George winning five times in the 80s and 90s. If you compare the album sales of each of these artists and their radio success, Darius really has a shot as he’s got the best-selling current album from any of these artists and his string of hits (from said albums) is rivaled by Paisley and Urban. It’s possible the ACM will go for new blood here and it’s my hope they will but Paisley and Urban present compelling cases themselves.
Who Will Win: Brad Paisley
Who Should Win: Darius Rucker
Top Female Vocalist of the Year
Miranda Lambert
Reba McEntire
Taylor Swift
Carrie Underwood
Lee Ann Womack
This is an interesting category because we have seven time winner Reba (none since 1994), three-time winner Underwood, multiple time nominee Lee Ann Womack and upstarts Taylor Swift and Miranda Lambert. It’s easy to dismiss Womack’s chances of winning as she had quite a quiet year in 2009 and the other four females on this list are the only women to have Top 10 hits in 2009. So she’s out (no matter how great and ‘real’ a country singer she is). Reba is likely next to go although 2009 felt like a strong comeback year. Even though she’s nominated six times overall, I think Miranda Lambert will likely not win this award either, setting up a showdown that will have the fans of the remaining two ladies, Taylor and Carrie butting heads over who should really have won since it seems that hardcore fans of each artist like to compare and contrast the two as if one cannot possibly be a fan of both singers. It’s like the crazy Twilight ‘team Edward’ and ‘team Jacob’ nonsense. Both have had great years but I think Carrie’s rein may be over
Who Will Win: Taylor Swift
Who Should Win: Miranda Lambert
Top Vocal Group of the Year
Lady Antebellum
Little Big Town
Randy Rogers Band
Rascal Flatts
Zac Brown Band
This is a category that really comes down to three names out of the five. Congrats to Roughstock favs Little Big Town and Red dirt stars Randy Rogers Band for getting nominated here but they have no chance at all of taking home this award. For the last seven years this award has gone to Rascal Flatts but like the CMA’s it’s time for a change now that they seemingly have ‘real’ competition in the award category and not just with one band this year but with Zac Brown Band and Lady Antebellum. In reality, I think that the ZBB and Lady A are going to duke it out for this award and both bands are very talented and deserving of this award. However, in the end I think it will go to…
Who Will Win: Lady Antebellum
Who Should Win: Lady Antebellum
Top Vocal Duo of the Year
Brooks & Dunn
Joey + Rory
Montgomery Gentry
Steel Magnolia
Sugarland
This is an interesting category as all the duos here had some success in 2009. The reality is that Best New duo winners Joey + Rory aren’t likely to take home this award, no matter how great they are and neither are Steel Magnolia. Steel Magnolia is just too new to take this category (and they lost to J+R for Best new duo). Montgomery Gentry never have won this award before but have been nominated for it since the year 2000. Brooks & Dunn have won this award 14 times (with one of those for duo or group) and Sugarland won it last year. With none of these duos having the strongest of years commercially outside of Sugarland, it’s hard to want to give the award to anyone else but with B&D retiring this year, I think they may eek out one more win here as a thank-you for all that they’ve done over the years.
Who Will Win: Brooks & Dunn
Who Should Win: Sugarland
Album of the Year (Award goes to label, artist, producers)
American Saturday Night - Brad Paisley (Arista Nashville)
Produced by: Chris DuBois, Frank Rogers
Lady Antebellum - Lady Antebellum (Capitol Records Nashville)
Produced by: Victoria Shaw, Paul Worley
Play On - Carrie Underwood (19/Arista Nashville)
Produced by: Mark Bright
Revolution - Miranda Lambert (Columbia Nashville)
Produced by: Frank Liddell, Mike Wrucke
The Foundation - Zac Brown Band (Southern Ground / Bigger Picture / Atlantic)
Produced by: Keith Stegall, Zac Brown
This is an interesting category in that two of these albums were actually released in 2008 (Lady A and ZBB). The Lady Antebellum album is actually the most curious inclusion here and a great example of the ACM’s strange rule for qualification. The trio is actually already two singles into their sophomore release so it just seems strange that the self-titled debut album made this list. The Foundation from the Zac Brown Band is a very strong album and this category is probably one of the hardest to predict but I honestly think the only one that doesn’t have a chance to win is Play On from Underwood, even though she won for this category with Some Hearts, she didn’t win it for Carnival Ride. Miranda won for Crazy Ex-Girlfriend a couple of years ago, in between Some Hearts and Fearless from Taylor Swift and Revolution is certainly deserving of winning this award, a case that can be made for Paisley, whose Time Well Wasted previously won in this category. All albums have sold well, have placed multiple hits (most of which are #1 hits) on the charts and were found on many best-of the year lists but I have to pick a winner so I’ll go with….
Who Will Win: American Saturday Night – Brad Paisley/Frank Rogers/Chris DuBois
Who Should Win: The Foundation – Zac Brown Band/Zac Brown/Keith Stegall
Single Record of the Year
Need You Now - Lady Antebellum (Capitol Records Nashville)
Produced by: Lady Antebellum, Paul Worley
People Are Crazy - Billy Currington (Mercury)
Produced by: Carson Chamberlain, Billy Currington
Red Light - David Nail (MCA Nashville)
Produced by: Frank Liddell, Mike Wrucke
Toes - Zac Brown Band (Southern Ground / Bigger Picture / Atlantic)
Produced by: Keith Stegall, Zac Brown
White Liar - Miranda Lambert (Columbia Nashville)
Produced by: Frank Liddell, Mike Wrucke
Once again we have a strong category of contenders for Single Record of the Year. We liked each and every song on this list and all but “Red Light” were #1 hits. “People Are Crazy” and “Red Light” are the least likely tracks to win this award -which goes to artist, label and producers. Each of the other tracks here have a strong memorable hook and one of them, “Need You Now” has gotten as high as #2 on the pop charts (it’s currently #3 and still has an outside shot at #1 there). The single was a #1 for about a month on the country charts and is the driver for why their album has sold nearly 2 million albums this year. The strength of this song makes it the strongest contender here, even though “Toes” and “White Liar” were both very, very good (and memorable) songs.
Who Will Win: Lady Antebellum – Need You Now/Paul Worley
Who Should Win: Lady Antebellum – Need You Now/Paul Worley
Song of the Year (award goes to composers and publishers)
Cowboy Casanova - Carrie Underwood
Composers: Mike Elizondo, Brett James, Carrie Underwood
Publishers: Brett James Cornelius Music (ASCAP), Carrie Okie Music (BMI), Rincon Ave Music
(ASCAP), Stage Three Songs (ASCAP)
Need You Now - Lady Antebellum
Composers: Dave Haywood, Josh Kear, Charles Kelley, Hillary Scott
Publishers: EMI Foray Music (BMI), Darth Buddha (ASCAP), Dwhaywood Music (BMI), Hillary Dawn Publishing (SESAC), Radiobullets Publishing (BMI), Warner-Tamerlane Publishing Corp. (BMI), Year Of The Dog Music (ASCAP)
People Are Crazy - Billy Currington
Composers: Bobby Braddock, Troy Jones
Publishers: Crozier Music Enterprises LLC (BMI), Mighty Nice Music (BMI), Sony/ATV Tree Publishing (BMI), Tiltawhirl Music (BMI)
White Liar - Miranda Lambert
Composers: Natalie Hemby, Miranda Lambert
Publishers: Pink Dog Publishing (BMI), Sony/ATV Tree Publishing (BMI), Tiltawhirl Music (BMI)
You Belong With Me - Taylor Swift
Composers: Liz Rose, Taylor Swift
Publishers: Sony/ATV Tree Publishing (BMI), Taylor Swift Music (BMI)
Once again, all of these songs were hits but you know, this category is a songwriter award so that means the award should be given to the strongest written song of the bunch and despite what people say, I really think that makes “People Are Crazy” a really, really strong contender here. Taylor Swift is a great contender and so is the Lady Antebellum song. And even though I personally like “White Liar,” I don’t know if it will get enough votes to win here.
Who Will Win: Lady Antebellum – Need You Now/Lady Antebellum & Josh Kear
Who Should Win: Miranda Lambert – White Liar/Miranda Lambert & Natalie Hemby
Video of the Year
Boots On – Randy Houser
Producer: Eric Welch
Director: Eric Welch (Drake footage: Vickie Vaughn)
Need You Now – Lady Antebellum
Producer: Clarke Gallican
Director: David McClister
Welcome To The Future – Brad Paisley
Producers: Mark Kalbfeld, Jim Shea, Peter Tilden
Director: Jim Shea
White Liar – Miranda Lambert
Producer: Tameron Hedge
Director: Chris Hicky
You Belong With Me – Taylor Swift
Producer: Randy Brewer
Director: Roman White
All of these videos have their own merits and I would love to see the cute Randy Houser video win the award but in the end I think it will come down to Lady Antebellum, Brad Paisley and Taylor.
Who Will Win: Taylor Swift – You Belong With Me/Roman White/Randy Brewer
Who Should Win: Randy Houser – Boots On/Eric Welch/Vickie Vaughn
Vocal Event of the Year
Hillbilly Bone - Blake Shelton featuring Trace Adkins (Warner Brothers Nashville)
Producer: Scott Hendricks
Honky Tonk Stomp - Brooks & Dunn featuring Billy Gibbons (Arista Nashville)
Producer: Ronnie Dunn, Terry McBride
I Told You So - Carrie Underwood featuring Randy Travis (19/Arista Nashville)
Producer: Mark Bright
I’m Alive - Kenny Chesney with Dave Matthews (Blue Chair/BNA)
Produced by: Buddy Cannon, Kenny Chesney
Seeing Stars - Jack Ingram featuring Patty Griffin (Big Machine Records)
Produced by: Jack Ingram, Jeremy Stove
This is the last category of this prediction and while in some years such categories are easy to predict, this one isn’t as it gives the ACM’s one more place to give Brooks & Dunn an award and also allows the Academy, which has always rewarded hits, the chance to give Randy Travis another award for “I Told You So.” While they both could win, I think that the star power and success of “Hillbilly Bone” will be too strong for it to not get considerable consideration. I love the other two songs in this category, particularly Jack Ingram’s “Seeing Stars” but I don’t see how it or the Chesney/Dave Matthews duet really have any chance of winning.
Who Will Win: Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins – “Hillbilly Bone”/Scott Hendricks
Who Should Win: Blake Shelton & Trace Adkins – “Hillbilly Bone”/Scott Hendricks.
Well, folks, that’s it. These are our predictions for the 2010 ACM Awards, the 45th edition. Do you agree with the predictions? Feel free to comment with your own predictions and enjoy the show on Sunday, April 18, 2010 on CBS TV (8/7).
0 Comments