2008 CMA Award Show Predictions

With the 42nd CMA Awards being presented tonight, there shouldn't be a better time than now to present our predictions for how the night will go.

With the 42nd CMA Awards being presented tonight, there shouldn't be a better time than now to present our predictions for how the night will go.  Aside for a brief reason why I'm choosing the winner (bolded) I chose.  Roughtock contributing writer Jaime Marconette has provided his selections for the night as well.  You will see his choices in parenthesis.

Entertainer of the Year:
Kenny Chesney
Brad Paisley
Keith Urban
Sugarland
George Strait

This category features a legend, three superstar acts and Sugarland, the lone female-voiced act to be nominated here.  While I believe Keith Urban, Brad Paisley and Sugarland put on entertaining shows, you cannot deny the impact Chesney continues to have with his stadium-filling concert series.  (Brad Paisley is Jaime Marconette's choice)

Male Vocalist of the Year:

Brad Paisley
Keith Urban
Alan Jackson
George Strait
Kenny Chesney

While a great entertainer, Chesney is far from the best country vocalist.  I can't help but think that Brad Paisley has finally earned the right to be deemed the Male Vocalist of the Year.  (George Strait is Jaime Marconette's choice).

Female Vocalist of the Year:
Carrie Underwood
Miranda Lambert
Alison Krauss
Taylor Swift
Martina McBride

There is a 3 horse race for this award.  Krauss and McBride are both previous winners of this award but neither really had much chart impact the last year (all of Krauss' was as a duo with Robert Plant).  If she had the gigantic vocal that almost all of the past winners have possessed, Swift would be a shoo-in.  Given her continued chart success, Underwood is my choice (as well as Jaime Marconette's choice) with Swift and Lambert fast on her heels.

Duo of the Year:
Sugarland
Montgomery Gentry
Brooks and Dunn
The Wreckers
Big and Rich

This choice this year is an obvious one this year.  While Brooks & Dunn have continued their chart success, their album has sold few copies and the same can be said for Montgomery Gentry. Sugarland, on the otherhand, has continued their monumental rise from talented trio to superstar duo.  There's no way the CMA votes for anyone else in this category.  Jaime Marconette agrees with me here as well. 

Group of the Year:

Little Big Town
Lady Antebellum
The Eagles
Rascal Flatts
Emerson Drive

While it'd be nice for the Eagles to win this award (as Jaime Marconette hoes to happen), I don't think the CMA will vote that way, particularly with Rascal Flatts and Little Big Town and Lady Antebellum all having significant chart success this year.  While Rascal Flatts probably will still win this award, given their album sales and tour success, I still hope for the very talented Little Big Town to snatch the award away from 'em.

New Artist (formerly Horizon Award):
Lady Antebellum
James Otto
Rodney Atkins
Kellie Pickler
Jason Aldean

While the CMA will likely select Rodney Atkins, Kellie Pickler or Jason Aldean for this award, I am more than impressed with the talented Lady Antebellum and James Otto.  Otto has 2008's biggest hit with "Just Got Started Loving You" while Lady A. has the most successful debut album of the year.  They also have a Top 3 single and another one currently rising the charts.  That's enough for both me and Jaime Marconette to select Lady Antebellum as this year's best "new artist."

Single of the Year:
"Stay" - Sugarland
"Gunpowder & Lead" - Miranda Lambert
"I Saw God Today" - George Strait
"You're Gonna Miss This" - Trace Adkins
"Don't Blink" - Kenny Chesney

This award is pretty simple.  None of the other four contenders even comes close to "Stay" in emotional impact or vocal delivery.  It's the simplest song of the bunch and by far the best single on this list  (where is Otto's "Just Got Started Loving You?")

Song of the year (award goes to the songwriter[s]):
"Stay" - Jennifer Nettles
"Letter To Me" - Brad Paisley
"You're Gonna Miss This" - Ashley Gorley & Lee Thomas Miller
"Good Time" - Alan Jackson
"I Saw God Today" - Rodney Clawson, Monty Criswell, Wade Kirby

As with the "Single" award above, none of these songs is as well-written as Stay."  Jaimie Marconette agrees with me, but I still think the CMA might be inclined to give "You're Gonna Miss This" or "Letter To Me" this award.

Album of the Year:
"Carnival Ride" - Carrie Underwood
"Troubadour" - George Strait
"Good Time" Alan Jackson
"Just Who I Am: Poets and Pirates" - Kenny Chesney
"Cowboy Town" - Brooks & Dunn

Jaime Marconette agrees with me in that there is really only one smart choice for this award.  That would be to select "Carnival Ride." It has 3 #1 singles (so far) and continues to sell decently (over 2 million sold) and that's enough to beat the other award contenders here.  That being said, I can see the CMA giving the award to Strait for "Troubadour" even if it's not as good as some of George's other albums from the past.

Vocal Event of the Year:

"Another Try" - Josh Turner and Trisha Yearwood
"Life in a Northern Town" - Sugarland, Little Big Town and Jake Owen
"Gone Gone Gone" - Robert Plant and Alison Krauss
"Every Other Weekend" - Reba and Kenny Chesney
"Shiftwork" - George Strait and Kenny Chesney

This one's pretty easy to pick out.  Due to block voting, three of the duets will cancel each other out and while I love "Live in a Northern Town," I think the CMA will give Alison Krauss and Robert Plant the award here.  Jaime Marconette agrees with me.

Video of the Year (goes to artist and director):

"Waitin' on a Woman" - Brad Paisley & Andy Griffith (Director: Peter Tilden)
"Stay" - Sugarland (Shaun Silva)
"Good Time" - AJ (Trey Fanjoy)
"You're Gonna Miss This" - Trace Adkins (Pete Zavadil)
"Don't Blink" - Kenny Chesney (Shaun Silva)

While all good videos, the ones that stand out the most are "Waitin' On A Woman," "Stay" and "Good Time."  I like "Waitin' On A Woman" while Jaime Marconette prefers "Good Time." In all honesty, I'd be happy if either three of these videos win the award.

Musician of the Year:
Jerry Douglas - Dobro
Dann Huff - Guitar
Paul Franklin - Guitar
Brent Mason - Guitar
Mac McAnally - Guitar

This award is simple.  Jerry Douglas is a master on the Dobro and it's one of my favorite instruments.  That being said, I really think all of these guys are great and would be happy to win, I'd be very happy to see Mac McAnally get this award as he's an oft-overlooked contributor to country music.  (Jaime Marconette's choice is Paul Franklin).

Well, folks, there you have it; Roughstock's choices for who will win the 42nd annual CMA Awards tonight.  Feel free to leave a comment with your choices.  Enjoy the show!

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